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Value of VFII Commodores & Gen-F2 in the future?

Discussion in 'VF Holden Commodore (2013 - 2017)' started by snortings, May 4, 2017.

What do ya reckon?

  1. Price will drop

    22 vote(s)
    75.9%
  2. Price will increase

    7 vote(s)
    24.1%
  1. EternityDre

    EternityDre Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure he's talking about metro areas, I'm definitely seeing first hand less young people with cars in Melbourne
     
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  2. 426Cuda

    426Cuda SUBLIME!

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    Yeah. Obviously if the trend continues the public transport systems will sruggle even more during peak periods. More reason to leave the big smoke!
     
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  3. Forg

    Forg Well-Known Member

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    If you're talking about stuff like future values of something due to competition for limited resources, then what's important is the majority of people.
    And don't over 80% of Australians live in the capitals?
    If you're eating smashed avocados in preference to buying your first house, then you've probably got what you consider enough disposable income to be living somewhere that everything's within walking or public-transport distance.
    A bit older though ... with kids, getting them to the places kids need to go etc, yeah a car's needed. Not necessarily wanted though ... going back to future supply:demand, without as many currently-young people having that interest in cars & them only being tools to be grudgingly bought ... blah blah youze know the drill. :)
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
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  4. monstar

    monstar Naturally as-pirated

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    My 19yo son and his 20 nearest Uni mates couldn't remotely give two shits about what (I know) and matters in personal transport or cars in general. Yep I'm an eccentric old kook obsessed with making noise and pollutants, too snobby to be free and enjoy the whole of life when you catch PT and drop the energy / transport control hangup basically.
    Teen mindset is still rebellion but nothing like the hotrod Happy Days 50's car culture or Bathurst or F1 motorsport frenzy I was indoctrinated with at his age growing up in the 80s. Quite fascinating how his mates rock up in a $1600 280Z (Charlies Angels era) with zero electronics as sort of kitsch clockwork anachronism, like disco Stu vintage flares. Smart buying apparently o_O
     
  5. crew_man

    crew_man Active Member

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    I'm sure that it isn't the case in regional areas, but the volume of cars being sold to millennials in regional areas is unlikely to sustain car makers profitability. The bulk of sales potential is located in urban areas, which is why they are targeting millennials in these areas.

    I am a millennial and I live in the inner suburbs of Melbourne (not a hipster) - I personally love my car and motorbike and will be buying plenty in my lifetime, but I also know a huge amount of people that don't own cars, or if they are couples they have a shared car such as a 5-10 year old Mazda 2 that barely gets used.

    As people move closer to the city, it gets increasingly hard to own a car as there is nowhere to park them and with the public transport and infrastructure available, there really is no reason to own a car.
     
  6. 426Cuda

    426Cuda SUBLIME!

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    Not really sure what point/s you're making Forg? It's a small mkt segment. Not aimed at soccer Mum's. But, re the 80/20 metro v country stats though, I'd reckon a much higher proportion of sales in Country area's are V8's. Added bonus is we really get to enjoy them too. Not mainly idling along in traffic, staring at the avg fuel used readings. In future demand for used one's in regional areas will remain strong when compared to city areas, I think.
    But, the bottom line for me is:
    A) These cars are not an investment. I think they will depreciate at a slower rate. But they will depreciate. The rarer and more desireable ones may buck the trend;
    B) I'm not bothered either way. It's value to me is in how much I enjoy it. Not what it's worth;
    C) If you want to invest $70k, go for property or shares.
     
  7. SnowDoggyDogg

    SnowDoggyDogg 2ltr? = Only milk & juice

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    Hey Cuda,

    Being a public servant (boo/hiss) we've got to use government datasets provided by the statisticians.

    An excerpt from the ABS:


    In 2012, people aged 55-64 years were the most likely to drive to work or full-time study (78%), while young people (aged 18-24 years) were the least likely age group (63%). Young people were the most likely to take public transport (28%) to work or study, compared with older age groups.

    Differences in passenger vehicle use were also seen between men and women. Women were more likely to use a passenger vehicle to get to work or study compared with men (74% compared with 69% respectively). They were also more likely to take public transport (19% compared with 13%). However, men were more likely than women to drive other types of vehicles such as a ute, panel van, truck or motorbike to work or study (11% for men compared with 1% for women).

    Note that the data is aggregated around census years so 2012 result are divined by 2011 census. The 2016 census, although poorly done, will demonstrate this trend of a lack of private vehicle ownership amongst the younger generation is accelerating. Expect that data and narrative sometime this year.
    I firmly believe that as the cost of private vehicle ownership is second only to the cost of housing (rent or bank rent.... err, I mean mortgage) that the increased cost of housing beyond inflation of wages (which are stagnant) has resulted in many young people foregoing car ownership as a discretionary expense against the cost of shelter. Sad but true.

    ABS data from this link here:

    https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features40July+2013#use&ved=0ahUKEwiLp4rPtNzTAhVIKZQKHTS6Av8QygQIHDAA&usg=AFQjCNFBDb16Hv-0QFX02-9RHpLzHbKGHQ
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
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  8. 426Cuda

    426Cuda SUBLIME!

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    Cheers. Yes, I agree, I wasn't implying the stats were wrong. I was genuinely interested in where the stats come from and what they show. I was simply making a point that in regional areas it doesn't appear that evident.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
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  9. crew_man

    crew_man Active Member

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    Another thing to remember, is that the second hand car market is flooded with cars at the moment, especially second hand euro cars that were being leased and have depreciated immensely, making them very attractive buys.

    While modern cars from volume manufacturers such as Holden, Mazda, Kia, Hyundai etc. are infinitely better than they used to be, better value can still be had by buying second hand - especially if it means that you can have a more 'prestigious' euro brand for not much more money.

    Manufacturers need to start offering more than just cars if they want to attract new customers, especially millennials.
    They need to start offering a 'lifestyle' and leveraging their sponsorship agreements in a way that offers customers an incentive to buy brand new from that brand because it gives them access to things that buying another brand or second hand wouldn't offer them - such as priority ticketing or free tickets to events, discounts at their partners etc. (similar to what telco's, credit cards and loyalty cards offer, but more tangible).
     
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  10. monstar

    monstar Naturally as-pirated

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    Too easy to buy into a car, and I agree with the changes afoot in energy / public transport it's pretty dumb for everyone to jump in and do that. Same as it is too easy to screw your life and be shackled with "bank rent" and shit job.
    Piss easy for late teens early 20s to get a (shit) first home buyer eligible house (read cheap arse new Chinese kit home packed tight on farm / swamp recently sold on outer suburb of whoop whoop). Boring cookie-cutter neighbourhoods with FA infrastructure (apart from ice dealers, a servo, Woolies and 7/11) and they only exist there to support lifestyle based around a mass commute to a centralised work precinct / job site far away. No functional village, no church (spiritual construct of any sort), no Rotary, Lions or Chamber of Commerce.
    Smart money doesn't live in these estates, in the wake of GFC of last decade some youth realise (despite the mass incentives and brainwash) that a reliable new car (loan/lease) and the ubiquitous stake in the ground is evidently not always the ideal start to invest your early life.
    It actually takes courage and foresight not to respond and actually rebel against life's targeted sales events, with virtually everyone around you indirectly vested in you buying into the land grab / new car economy. Thankfully youngsters have better access to comms, global / social info and even airfares vs the GFC decade prior.
    Been singing this for more than half a century on the Gold Coast, now the lyric seems almost utopian vs the cheap, clearly fake soul-less sub-metro civilisation on offer to youth in 2017:
     
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  11. 426Cuda

    426Cuda SUBLIME!

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    Haha. I'm an ex Pub servant too. I feel your pain.
    I've seen planners use stats like these in traffic studies and get it very wrong, regionally speaking. Our Council paid a motza for a consultant to do a study here due to parking issues in and around the CBD. The recommendations included that there was an over supply of parking and we should introduce paid parking. They couldn't have been more wrong. I've been instrumental and vocal on the virtues of paid parking at major transport hubs. It works as a traffic managent tool. But not in our CBD. We need more parking.
    Anyway back on topic, despite declining sales, I still believe our cars will decline in value over the medium term, but at a reasonably slow rate. This to me is another reason why it was a good decision for me to buy another one.
     
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  12. SnowDoggyDogg

    SnowDoggyDogg 2ltr? = Only milk & juice

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    There is some interesting literature around the concept of the world having reached 'peak car' production in the past year or two based on the quality of second hand and demonstrator vehicles flooding the market.
    There's been a remarkable shift in R&D towards electrics which will spur interest in new vehicle purchase soon and start the fading away of ICE vehicles. This has probably accounted for the stagnation in recent car development (outside of smart phone integration and gimmicks).

    Exciting time to be alive!

    P.S. I'm looking to relocate to real regional Australia as the quality of life is unmatched by the capital metros.
     
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  13. crew_man

    crew_man Active Member

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    I also think that over time cars have become too similar, with manufacturers focusing on the areas that can be quantified and are tangible.

    It's become increasingly hard to find a car with character or one that invokes passion in the driver, as this is something that can't be quantified.

    I think that this is why we have seen cars that do invoke passion and are driver focused increasing in value in recent years, such as Porsches with manual transmissions and hydraulic steering systems, now that all but the top-tier Porsches have auto boxes and electric steering.

    A focus on 0-100km/h times and fast laps around the 'Ring has forced a lot of the changes that result in the driver being disconnected from the car.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2017
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  14. SnowDoggyDogg

    SnowDoggyDogg 2ltr? = Only milk & juice

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    Those reasons you give echo what the American reviews of the Chevy SS are heaping praise on the manual sedan. Comparing it over SRT, M and AMG variants because its a real drivers car

     
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  15. Flo Rider

    Flo Rider Member

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    They tick most the boxes to be collectable and worth something in the future - historical significance, unique - but lack the scarcity. Meet back here in 30 years and see who was right :)
     
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  16. Forg

    Forg Well-Known Member

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    Just pointing out that the fact that young people in regional areas need a car to get around doesn't apply to the majority of Australians, and then bringing the general lack of interest in cars by young people back to the thread topic.
    Certainly agree with your bottom line. When we bought the SSVR we always knew it was an indulgent expenditure on a depreciating asset; not being an LS3 car, ours will continue to depreciate harder than LS3 cars of course, but frankly it's my better half's car & she gets more enjoyment out of the not-all-black interior and the colour than she would out of the extra powahs and bimodals.
     
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  17. Ron Burgundy

    Ron Burgundy Well-Known Member

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    All posts have more than 3 lines. Who the **** reads all this...
     
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  18. 426Cuda

    426Cuda SUBLIME!

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    Gotchya. Yeah I agree.
    PS: I like the idea of having an L77 AFM Redline. It's got plenty of features the S2 missed out on, as you know. The seats are way better too. But for me, I really like the E85 compatibility and the AFM. It's cool cruising along the highway at 110+ and seeing the fuel consumption get into the 6's! I don't really think about resale. She's a keeper. Just like the Motorsport.
     
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  19. woooo

    woooo Active Member

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    To me it's all about turning on my Aussie built V8 muscle car in 10 years time (hopefully in mint condition still) and just listening to the rumble and pops of the old school muscle that you just can't get anymore (maybe from internationally yes). Whilst driving my small electric vehicle during the week! It'll be the classic car we see gettting around today like the old school muscle of now. Maybe need some big cam in there...
     
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  20. snortings

    snortings Active Member

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    Agreed
     

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